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Saturday, December 6, 2014

deadly storms of December

from the years after 2008, we have seen typhoons that can only be seen in holywood
perfect super storm movies. the weather patterns are different now, before christmas,
before the year ends,  we are always visited by the last batch of deadly super typhoons.
I never heared of signal no. 4 when I was growing up. this is new to me. but after
Haiyan(2013), the pictures from socialmedia gave a different meaning to the term
supertyphoons, now, I know the extent of damage a 200+kph gust can bring. and
the new term called Storm Surge.

a background of what Im talking about. we all remember last yr's Haiyan
and these images broke my heart back then.

December 6, HAGUPIT (RUBY) has maintained its Super Typhoon strength as it
continues to move closer to Samar with its slow-westward track. The potential landfall area
of this cyclone is along the northern part of Eastern Samar between 8PM-10PM tonight.

different storm tracks were presented to the media, bec of diff. computer models used for forecasting

Information based on data collected by different forecasting agencies shall not
be taken as official data. there are 3 versions of the forecast, With different forecast
models on typhoon 'Ruby' being released by international meteorological agencies,
Filipinos should trusttheir own instincts. if you think the winds will not reach you, think
about the torrential rains, remember: 8hours of continous rainfall gives a long term
damage than a "1-minute maximum sustained winds of around 240 kph and 296 kph
gusts" forcasted by jtwc which said thart the typhoon will get across the Bicol region,
Calabarzon, and just south of Metro Manila.
(video courtesy of ABSCBN)
Hagupit still expected to make landfall tonight in the vicinity of Dolores, Eastern Samar.

Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 
and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the 
wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or 
right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to 
time. trust your instinct, dont wait till its too late, its good to prepare and be prepared.

What to expect of this super typhoon:

A storm surge is a rise above the normal water level along a shore resulting from
strong onshore winds and / or reduced atmospheric pressure. Storm surges accompany
a tropical cyclone as it comes ashore. They may also be formed by intense low-pressure
systems in non-tropical areas. tonight, Storm surges up to four meters high are likely to
hit coastal communities in Samar. it may also reach 8m. beware also of landslide area.

Storm Surge + Normal Tide = Storm Tide.  The worst impacts occur when the storm
surge arrives on top of a high tide. When this happens, the storm tide can reach areas
that might otherwise have been safe. On top of this are pounding waves generated by
the powerful winds.

Storm surges and tsunami
A storm surge is generated by weather systems forcing water onshore over a generally
limited stretch of coastline. It will normally build up over a time frame of a few hours, as
the cyclone or similar weather system approaches. Normally wind-waves on top of the
surge will contribute to its effect.
A Tsunami is generated by earthquakes, undersea landslides, volcanic eruptions, explosions
or meteorites

what to do?
decide where you will go in the event of a storm surge. You might have a friend living on
higher ground with whom you could go and stay. Wherever your nearest safe high ground
shelter might be, work out the safest way to get there.
Now is the time to plan for what you will do in the event of evacuation. Will you have
essential medicines? What about vital documents? What will you do with your pets? Be
prepared to vacuate as soon as you are advised to do so. This makes it easier for
Emergency Services to manage the difficult task of moving a lot of people all at once,
especially if the weather is getting worse. like what is happening now in Samar after
8pm.power lines will be toppled down and power will be out.

the best communication is not your celphone or andline. your 2 way radio. pls. charge
them now. get to a safe place, now.

Rainfall will also produce dramatic flooding along the path of Hagupit, So
if you are in a low area like Marikina, Cavite, pls evacuate if neccesary as early as
possible. Specially if you are nearing great bodies of water. the storm will pass through
batangas tagaytay and cavite if your area has been flooded before during ondoy, habagat,
and now is the time to get to higher ground.

This magnitude of rainfall will likely produce widespread flooding along QC, with a
heightened risk for mudslides in mountainous places. and we know mudslides and
floodingcould result in some areas being cut off from outside aid for several days following
this storm.

some references:
what to do if your car is submerged?
when stuck in floodwaters, how to escape by driving in flooded streets?
Detecting flooded Cars

With landfall farther north, the hardest-hit areas by Haiyan will escape the worst tidal
surge from Hagupit but will still be severely impacted; this includes the city of
Tacloban which was devastated by Haiyan. To make matters worse, some areas are
still trying to recover from Haiyan, which will leave them more vulnerable to the
impacts of Hagupit. i will continue to update this blog from time to time for pictures.

I predict that Manila will feel this after dark tomorow, sunday. and so.....
Tomorow, I will still go to our scheduled HS batch reunion, and attend the tour of
Lawrence Chan for Apo Philatelic society, I hope I could get out of floodwaters if
in case the worst came too early.

typhoon Hagupit will continue to get weak, for sure, as it approaches land.
lets just hope that it wont go back to the sea and get back to land.
Now, the super typhoon has been downgraded to typhoon status.
Weather satellite feed as of Dec 06, 2014 10:00 PM.

It is projected to pass through parts of Bicol, and then Metro Manila
will feel impact of Ruby on Monday morning when it makes landfall over Oriental
Mindoro, before exiting Luzon by thu, Dec. 11. then its the start of the
christmas shopping season.

note: pictures are properties of their respected owners taken from the internet

Some 20 typhoons enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility per year, and Ruby is the 
18th to do so in 2014.In 2013, the Philippines was hit by 25 typhoons. In the past 
20 years, the average number of typhoons that enter the PAR has been 15-20 per year. 
Out of that, around 1 typhoons per year make landfall, the majority of them hitting Luzon.

stay safe everybody
dont pray, but instead, prepare.

Dennis Ko

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